infectious disease dynamics

COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures toreduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individualswas effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it …

Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China

The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected …

Digitale Epidemiologie

Digital epidemiology is a new and rapidly growing field. The technological revolution we have been witnessing during the last decade, the global rise of the Internet, the emergence of social media and social networks that connect individuals …

Hosts mobility and spatial spread of Rickettsia rickettsii

There are a huge number of pathogens with multi-component transmission cycles, involving amplifier hosts, vectors or complex pathogen life cycles. These complex systems present challenges in terms of modeling and policy development. A lethal …

Human mobility, networks and disease dynamics on a global scale

Disease dynamics is a complex phenomenon and in order to address these questions expertises from many disciplines need to be integrated. One method that has become particularly important during the past few years is the development of computational …

Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks

We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation …

Fundamental properties of cooperative contagion processes

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent A exhibit a higher than …

Molecular surveillance of measles and rubella in the WHO European Region: new challenges in the elimination phase

The WHO European Region (EUR) has adopted the goal of eliminating measles and rubella but individual countries perform differently in achieving this goal. Measles virus spread across the EUR by mobile groups has recently led to large outbreaks in the …

Public health: This message must be herd

Immunization against vaccine-preventable diseases not only protects the individual but also has a social benefit. A study now shows that communicating this effect, known as herd immunity, can have a substantial impact on a person's inclination to …

Origin detection during food-borne disease outbreaks-a case study of the 2011 ehec/hus outbreak in germany

The key challenge during food-borne disease outbreaks, e.g. the 2011 EHEC/HUS outbreak in Germany, is the design of efficient mitigation strategies based on a timely identification of the outbreak's spatial origin. Standard public health procedures …