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Preprint out: Digital contact tracing contributes little to COVID-19 outbreak containment

Preprint out: Digital contact tracing contributes little to COVID-19 outbreak containment

Our preprint Digital contact tracing contributes little to COVID-19 outbreak containment is out and available on medrxiv.org. As digital contact tracing apps raised the hope that they may be efficient enough to contain outbreaks without falling back to harsher NPIs, we analyzed its success.

The ROCS-Team welcomes new members!

The ROCS-Team welcomes new members!

Our team keeps growing! We warmly welcome: Adrian Pelcaru Paul Buttkus Tashin Talbot Marc Wiedemann Jakob Kolb We are very happy that they are on board. They will support us with their huge knowledge in our different projects.

Dirk  @ Jung & Naiv - Folge 503

Dirk @ Jung & Naiv - Folge 503

Tilo Jung interview Dirk about COVID-19, modelling infectious diseases and complexity. (this interview is in German)

A new COVID-19 mobility monitor report ist online

A new COVID-19 mobility monitor report ist online

This latest report contains an interactive illustration of the traffic network that connects adjacent counties in Germany.

Preprint out: Potential benefits of delaying the second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose

Preprint out: Potential benefits of delaying the second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose

We are happy that our preprint Potential benefits of delaying the second mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose is out and available on arxiv.org. This has been a very constructive and effective collaborative effort, lead by our Ben Maier, who did all the heavy lifting, and valuable contributions by the teams of Cornelia Betsch, Michael Meyer-Hermann and by Karl Lauterbach.

Just published: Social networks predict the life and death of honey bees

Just published: Social networks predict the life and death of honey bees

Social networks predict the life and death of honey bees. B Wild, D M Dormagen, A Zachariae, M L Smith, K S Traynor, D Brockmann, I D Couzin, T Landgraf Nature Communications 12, 1110 (2021).

Pascal Klamser joins the ROCS-Team - Welcome Pascal

Pascal Klamser joins the ROCS-Team - Welcome Pascal

Pascal is a physicist by training with a PhD (almost) in biophysics and an interdisciplinary interest with a focus on multi-agent systems. How simple interaction rules shape the large scale dynamics of a system is the unifying question behind diverse projects as predator avoidance in collective behavior and opinion dynamics on adaptive networks.

A new COVID-19 mobility monitor report ist online

A new COVID-19 mobility monitor report ist online

The report focuses on mobility in Germany as a function of distance. We address the question how mobility within German counties and across county borders is affected by lockdown measures and how this changes over time. The new report features a number of interactive illustrations.

Dirk Brockmann macht Schule

Dirk Brockmann macht Schule

Only in German -> Prof. Dr. Dirk Brockmann trifft die Klasse 9c des Annette-Gymnasiums in Münster. Er erklärt wie wichtig Mathematik für die Modellierung von Infektionskrankheiten ist, was komplexe Systeme sind, und welche Rolle Computerprogrammieren spielt.

Current and Most Recent Projects

.js-id-COVID-19
Covid-19 Dynamics on a Global Scale

Covid-19 Dynamics on a Global Scale

This interactive visualization illustrates the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic since January, 2020 until now on a global scale. The world map shows the number of cases by country as a function of time. This interactive visualization was inspired by the great Hiroki Sayama and his COVID-19 videos of the dynamics of the pandemic. This interactive version was created by Olivia Jack in the ROCS-Team. The animation is updated continously with new data coming in.

Global Mobility Visualization

Global Mobility Visualization

This interactive visualization illustrates the worldwide air-transportation network. The network connects approx. 4000 airports globally with roughly 51000 connections. On this network more than 3 billion passengers travel each year. In total humanity travels a total distance of over 15 million kilometers every day (under normal conditions), that is roughly three times the radius of our solar system.

Spreading Routes on a Global Scale

Spreading Routes on a Global Scale

This interactive visualization illustrates the most probable spreading routes of a pandemic with and arbitrary initial outbreak location that you can choose. The visualization implements the ideas of series of papers that introduce and discuss the concept of effective distance in complex, network-driven contagion phenomena.

Corona Datenspende App

Corona Datenspende App

At the beginning of April 2020, we launched the official Corona Datenspende App. Since then, more than 530.000 German inhabitants have decided to donate their fitness tracker data. This is the biggest data donation project worldwide. We also calculate daily fever detections by regions and update the live fever monitor.

COVID-19 mobility monitor

COVID-19 mobility monitor

We look at current pandemic mobility patterns and analyse the germanwide mobility based on anonymized mobile phone data. Our automated daily results are shown on the live monitor.

Epipack

Epipack

Fast prototyping of epidemiological models based on reaction equations. Analyze the ODEs analytically or numerically, or run/animate stochastic simulations on networks/well-mixed systems. Simple compartmental models of infectious diseases are useful to investigate effects of certain processes on disease dissemination. Using pen and paper, quickly adding/removing compartments and transition processes is easy, yet the analytical and numerical analysis or stochastic simulations can be tedious to set up and debug—especially when the model changes (even slightly).

COVID-19 - Event Horizon

COVID-19 - Event Horizon

The Covid-19 Event Horizon Project was inititated during the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 when the pandemic was predominantly unfolding in mainland China. The project had two independent elements, each containing a predictive model. One model assessed the import risk of SARS-CoV-2 in different countries based on the global air-transportation network. The second dynamical model (SIRX) assessed the contaiment measures on the dynamics of the time course of the pandemic.

Netwulf

Netwulf

Simple and interactive network visualization in Python. Network visualization is an indispensable tool for exploring and communicating patterns in complex systems. Netwulf offers an ultra-simple API for reproducible interactive visualization of networks directly from a Python prompt or Jupyter notebook. As a research tool, its purpose is to allow hassle-free quick interactive layouting/styling for communication purposes.

Complexity Explorables

Complexity Explorables

This project is designed for people interested in complex systems and complex dynamical processes. Complexity Explorables hosts different collections of interactive illustrations of models for complex systems in physics, mathematics, biology, chemistry, social sciences, neuroscience, epidemiology, network science and ecology. Topics include pattern formation, synchronization, critical phenomena, chaotic dynamics, evolutionary dynamics, fractals, collective behavior, reaction-diffusion systems and more.

VacMap

VacMap

VacMap is an interactive visualization of the vaccination status in Germany. VacMap conveys a qualitative and quantitative representation of the vaccination coverage at the regional resolution.

ZePaK

ZePaK

The aim of the project is to research which types of ticks are climate-related possibly new and which pathogens they carry. New Tick species behave differently than native ticks and can be burdened with previously unknown pathogens and potentially affect them Transfer people. The aim is to develop a structure for this pilot and citizens in a Citizen Science project motivate them to collect ticks and make them available to the RKI.

COVID-19 Publications

Most recent papers / preprints / documents / statements

German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO)-Welle 11 (12.05.2020)
PsychArchives
Risk perceptions down at pre-lockdown level, acceptance of measures related to worries aboutindividual economic situationRisk perceptions are still …
German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO)-Welle 11 (12.05.2020)
Coronavirus-Pandemie--Die Krise nachhaltig überwinden
Nationale Akademie der Wissenschaften Leopoldina
Die Ausbreitung des SARS-CoV-2-Virus hat inzwischen auf alle Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft massive Auswirkungen. Angesichts der daraus resultierenden …
Coronavirus-Pandemie--Die Krise nachhaltig überwinden
German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO)-Welle 9 (28.04.2020)
PsychArchives
Mobility increases as risk perception decreases, perceptions of a second wave, exit strategies, vaccinationsRisk perception, fears and concerns …
German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO)-Welle 9 (28.04.2020)

Human Mobility & Infectious Disease Dynamics

A selection of papers

Human mobility, networks and disease dynamics on a global scale.

Bunde A., Caro J., Kärger J., Vogl G. (eds) Diffusive Spreading in Nature, Technology and Society. Springer, Cham. (2018).

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Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks.

Phys. Rev. E 95, 012313 (2017).

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Unifying viral genetics and human transportation data to predict the global transmission dynamics of human influenza H3N2.

PLoS Pathog 10(2): e1003932 (2014).

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The structure of borders in a small world.

PLoS ONE 5(11): e15422 (2010).

Cite Source Document DOI View

Human mobility and spatial disease dynamics.

In Reviews of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complexity, H.G. Schuster (Ed.). (2009).

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The scaling laws of human travel.

Nature 439 (7075), p. 462-465 (2006).

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Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (42), 15124-15129 (2004).

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Team

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Olivia Jack

Researcher, Visual Artist

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Adrian Pelcaru

Master Student

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Jakob Kolb

Data Engineer

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Marc Wiedermann

PostDoc / Data Scientist

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Paul Buttkus

Master Student

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Susi Gottwald

Project Manager

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Tashin Talbot

B.Eng. Student

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Adrian Zachariae

PhD Student

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Annika Rose

PhD Student

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David Hinrichs

Data Scientist

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Frank Schlosser

PhD Student

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Maria Siegmund

Researcher

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Clara Jongen

Master student

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Katja Weimer

Master student

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Mowgli

Senior Parks & Recreation Officer

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