2014 Ebola Outbreak: Updates & Results

Worldwide Air-Transportation, Import Risk and Most Probable Spreading Routes

August 4th, 2014

last updated: October 24th, 2014

Below is a summary of results of our computational model for the global import risk of EVD (Ebola Virus Disease). For details about the study, the model and further information see "2014 Ebola Outbreak: Worldwide Air-Transportation, Relative Import Risk and Most Probable Spreading Routes".

Interactive Tool 1 - Import risk at every airport and most probable spreading routes

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Interactive Tool 2 - Import risk by continent, region, country and airport

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The Role of Airports: Ebola Distribution Propensity

The figure depicts the 30 largest airports in terms of connectivity and total passenger traffic. Distribution propensity quantifies the importance of an airport as a gateway for travelers from Ebola affected West African countries to other locations worldwide. Larger distribution propensity implies more intense gateway function. Buttons select West African reference locations (top) and airport passenger flux / connectivity (bottom).

Relative Import Risk Ranked by Country

Relative Import Risk ranked by Airport

Effective distance from outbreak location ranked by country

Effective distance estimates the relative arrival time at a location. For more information on effective distance see Hidden Geometry Page and "2014 Ebola Outbreak: Worldwide Air-Transportation, Relative Import Risk and Most Probable Spreading Routes".

Effective distance from outbreak location ranked by airport

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