=> numbers last updated: Tue, 05 May 2020 09:00:22 CEST <=

Coronavirus COVID-19 Early Risk Assessment

This section compiles results obtained from a computational model for the expected global spread of the novel coronavirus that originated in the Chinese province of Hubei in December 2019. The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transporation network that connects over 4000 airports with more than 50000 flight routes.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena, D. Brockmann & D. Helbing, Science: 342, 1337-1342 (2013).

Relative Import Risk Assessment

The figures below illustrate the relative import risk at the airport, country and continental levels, as predicted by the import risk model and the worldwide air transportation network.

If you are uncertain what relative import risk means or how to interpret it, it is recommended that you first have a look at the Relative Import Risk Explained section.
The import risk model describes the situation during the early phase of the pandemic, before massive circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in countries outside of Mainland China started. Now that the COVID-19 epidemic has reached pandemic level with circulation in more than 100 countries is happending, this model is no longer applicable.

Figure 1: Current import risk estimates for the top 50 countries (excluding Mainland China) at highest risk of importation. Hover over a country to display in the inset the relative import risk of the top airports in the selected country. The national import risk is the cumulative import risk of all airports in that country. Countries with confirmed cases of COVID-19 are depicted in red; the current number of cases per country are listed on the right-hand side.

National import risk by continent

The charts below depict national import risk estimates stratified by continent and ranked by level of risk. Note that the import risk axes in all panels are of equal scale.

Asia

Figure 2: Top 10 Asian countries / special administrative regions.


Europe

Figure 3: Top 10 European countries.


Americas

Figure 4: Top 10 countries in the Americas.


Oceania

Figure 5: Top 7 Oceanic countries.


Africa

Figure 6: Top 10 African countries.


Import risk by airport

The panels below depict the relative import risk by airport ranked by risk level.

Airports in Mainland China

Figure 7: Top 40 airports in Mainland China.


Airports outside Mainland China

Figure 8: Top 40 worldwide airports (excluding Mainland China). Continents are grouped by color.


European airports

Figure 9: Top 20 European airports.


Pre-quarantine risk assessment

The initial predictions were made by the model when traffic out of Wuhan was still active and the outbreak was dominantly confined to the Hubei Province. Since the closure of Wuhan Airport, these numbers are no longer applicable to the current situation. However, they can still be useful for comparison to the current risk assessment.

Figure 10: Relative import risk estimates of the top 30 countries (excluding Mainland China) at highest risk of importation. Hover over a country to display in the inset the relative import risk of the top airports in the selected country.


References & resources