=> numbers last updated: Tue, 05 May 2020 09:00:22 CEST <=
Coronavirus COVID-19 Early Risk Assessment
This section compiles results obtained from a computational model for the expected global spread of the novel coronavirus that originated in the Chinese province of Hubei in December 2019. The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transporation network that connects over 4000 airports with more than 50000 flight routes.
This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena, D. Brockmann & D. Helbing, Science: 342, 1337-1342 (2013).
Relative Import Risk Assessment
If you are uncertain what relative import risk means or how to interpret it, it is recommended that you first have a look at the Relative Import Risk Explained section.
The import risk model describes the situation during the early phase of the pandemic, before massive circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in countries outside of Mainland China started. Now that the COVID-19 epidemic has reached pandemic level with circulation in more than 100 countries is happending, this model is no longer applicable.
National import risk by continent
The charts below depict national import risk estimates stratified by continent and ranked by level of risk. Note that the import risk axes in all panels are of equal scale.
Import risk by airport
The panels below depict the relative import risk by airport ranked by risk level.
Airports in Mainland China
Airports outside Mainland China
Pre-quarantine risk assessment
The initial predictions were made by the model when traffic out of Wuhan was still active and the outbreak was dominantly confined to the Hubei Province. Since the closure of Wuhan Airport, these numbers are no longer applicable to the current situation. However, they can still be useful for comparison to the current risk assessment.