=> numbers last updated: Sun, 29 Mar 2020 12:07:52 CEST <=

Forecasts by Country

On this page, we present the 6-day forecasts of COVID-19 case counts by country based on a novel epidemiological model that integrates the effect of population behavior changes due to government measures and social distancing.

The SIR-X model is described in detail here: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China, B. F. Maier & D. Brockmann, medRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024414, (2020)

The containment measures implemented in response to the growing pandemic vary drastically by country. Classical epidemiological models fail to capture the impact of such efforts on the spread of the outbreak. Under unconstrained conditions, we would see exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases. However, several graphs below indicate that this is not the case. These insights can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of containment strategies in order to inform further courses of action and future policies.

Click a country below to view the forecasts for that country. Move the pointer to display the number of confirmed cases by date.

The open dots indicate the total number of confirmed cases over time. The blue bars represent the new confirmed cases per day. The solid line depict the model's fit and subsequent predictions of case count numbers for the next 6 days as well as the expected new cases per day. The grey and red shaded regions represent the 98% and 68% confidence intervals, respectively.

Please note that the model assumes that the number of contacts between individuals can change over time continuously by susceptibles going into isolation or otherwise being shielded from the transmission process. Discontinuous, disruptive changes are not captured by the model. For countries where abrupt changes can be seen in the data, it is likely that infrastructural changes play a role in how cases are counted. The model also puts higher weights on most recent data points to capture the latest development accurately.

You can read more about the model, its assumptions and the accuracy of its predictions on another page.

All case data is provided by Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) via their online GIS dashboard.